Simulation-Based Policy Evaluation

Introduction

Balancing human development with conservation efforts is a global challenge. This project introduces a study conducted in the Wolong National Nature Reserve in Sichuan, China, which employs simulations of Coupled Human and Natural Systems (CHANS) to assess the effectiveness of two ecological conservation programs: Grain-to-Green (G2G) and Firewood-to-Electricity (F2E), in protecting the habitat of the giant panda through cost-effectiveness analysis.

By leveraging the Socio-Econ-Ecosystem Multipurpose Simulator (SEEMS), an agent-based model designed for CHANS, this research offers a framework for policymakers to design economically viable and environmentally sustainable policies. It identifies optimal policy combinations that strike a balance between ecological conservation and economic growth, demonstrating the potential to achieve these dual goals within the constraints of limited budgets and the complexities of CHANS.

Research Focus

This study employs the Socio-Econ-Ecosystem Multipurpose Simulator (SEEMS), an agent-based model (ABM) designed to simulate small-scale coupled human and nature systems. The research analyzes the cost-effectiveness of the G2G and F2E programs in terms of financial budget, habitat conservation performance, and local economic impacts.

For G2G programs, the study incorporates a risk factor to simulate the uncertainty of business returns and classifies households into distinct categories based on their risk tolerance and preferences for the income-leisure trade-off, which directly influences their decision to participate in G2G initiatives.

We utilized pathfinding and random walk algorithms to simulate household firewood collection behavior, reflecting real-world practices. This enables a better understanding of how the F2E policy, after influencing household energy use patterns, affects the spatial extent and intensity of firewood collection activities, and consequently, the quality of habitats.

Key Findings

• G2G program achieves optimal financial efficiency at around 500 CNY/Mu, with diminishing returns beyond 1000 CNY/Mu.
• F2E program shows a significant increase in electricity consumption and policy costs is observed when the subsidized electricity price drops below 0.3 CNY/kWh.
• Comprehensive cost-efficiency analysis shows no significant correlation between financial burden and carbon emissions, but a positive association with habitat quality and a nonlinear relationship with total economic income.
• Pareto analysis identifies 18 optimal policy combinations that balance carbon footprint, habitat quality, and financial benefits.

Research Progress

The study has been compiled into a paper “Reconciling Human Development and Giant Panda Protection Goals: Cost‑Effectiveness of Farmland Reversion and Energy Substitution Programs in Wolong National Reserve.” and submitted to Ecological Modelling.